Canada Votes 2019

hungHere we go again, another federal election and no one to vote for. Voted first thing on Friday the first day for the advance poll. By the time I got in 5 people came after me and when I left shortly afterwards another half dozen lined up. We may very well have a hung Parliament and this post is to show you a set procedure for dealing with the process of government formation.

The fourth Monday after the election (November 18th) the House of Commons reconvenes. In the morning you have the swearing in of the members and in the afternoon the election of the Speaker of the House. After the Speaker is sworn in the Speaker then asks the Members of Parliament who has the confidence of the House to form a government?

For the last Parliament the most senior Members for the Liberal, Conservative, and NDP parties would stand up and the Speaker would ask each in order of seniority who the Governor-General should call upon to form a Government. Each would give the name of their Party Leader. Actually any MP could stand up and nominate someone but by custom and precedent only those who know they will have 17 members to stand up and second that nomination do so. After the nominating is done the Speaker asks is there 17 members to endorse each nominee (5% of the House or 17 of 338)? Which is a formality and the Speaker advises the Governor-General to call upon the three nominees to form a Government.

The Governor-General on Tuesday morning calls them all in and asks them to submit a membership for a cabinet and to give that list tomorrow. On Wednesday morning the all go back and give the list for a Council of Minsters to serve in the 42nd Parliament. Wednesday afternoon the Speaker asks the Members of Parliament which of these council-designates have their confidence to form the Government of Canada.

There would be only one vote for the Liberals would have a majority with the Conservatives in second and the NDP third. Thursday in the House of Commons the NDP council-designate would be sworn in as a shadow council by the Speaker. On Saturday at Rideau Hall the Conservative council-designate would be sworn in as the Council of Opposition by the Governor-General. Sunday the Liberals sworn in as the Council of Ministers.

And your done! Even works if all members are independents.

John McCain

mccainFirst posted on the Party website now here. A man I would have really liked to have had the opportunity to meet. A statesman is someone you disagree with and oppose what they are saying but will sit there and listen respectfully while they say it. RIP Senator John McCain 1936 – 2018.

Kids at play

uscapitalHere they go with judicial nominations again. Not a single statesmen among the lot of them just a bunch of politicians doing what they do best in Washington DC.

As I posted earlier have 5 set days on which the nomination is brought to a confirmation vote; 20 days after, 40 days, 60 days, 90 days, and 120 days. It is automatically brought to a vote the first sitting of the Senate 60 days after the nomination. The Senate by 75 votes can bring it to a vote 20 days after the nomination, by 67 votes 40 days after, by 34 votes 90 days after, and by 50 votes delay the confirmation vote till 120 days after appointment. Super majorities can bring a nomination forward in time and minorities can delay the confirmation vote. Majorities can not suppress the minority and the minorities can not block the majority. The Senate has every right to confirm and every right to reject but no right to do this routine they do for everything now. Congress has become not just dysfunctional but almost inoperable.

I would change the vote needed to confirm judicial appointments. For the lower courts and appeal courts a 2/3 majority of those senators present and voting with at least 51 senators voting. For all Supreme court appointments an absolute 2/3 majority or 67 votes for confirmation.

GW Bush / Al Gore

bushgoreAn interesting question is do the Democrats have a built-in advantage in the electoral college? I came up with the idea to recalculate the last presidential elections so that the Republican and Democratic candidates got the same vote, an exact 50/50 popular vote split. So here’s the result for 2000. I calculated to the nearest thousand votes and to 4 decimal places.

GW Bush 50,456,000 votes / Gore 51,000,000 votes / Equal votes for each 50,728,000

Multiple Bush’s  vote by 1.0054 / Multiple Gore’s vote by 0.9947 / Do this for their vote in each state and the District of Columbia. What happens?

The electoral votes of the states of Wisconsin (11) and New Mexico (5) go from Al Gore to GW Bush. The change in electoral votes for the candidates?

GW Bush got 271 electoral votes (50.3%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 287 electoral votes (53%).

Kerry got 267 electoral votes (49.7%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 251 electoral votes (47%).

GW Bush / Kerry

bushkerryAn interesting question is do the Democrats have a built-in advantage in the electoral college? I came up with the idea to recalculate the last presidential elections so that the Republican and Democratic candidates got the same vote, an exact 50/50 popular vote split. So here’s the result for 2004. I calculated to the nearest thousand votes and to 4 decimal places.

GW Bush 62,040,000 votes / Kerry 59,028,000 votes / Equal votes for each 60,534,000

Multiple Bush’s  vote by 0.9757 / Multiple Kerry’s vote by 1.0255 / Do this for their vote in each state and the District of Columbia. What happens?

The electoral votes of the states of Ohio (20) and New Mexico (5) go from GW Bush to Kerry. The change in electoral votes for the candidates?

GW Bush got 286 electoral votes (53%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 261 electoral votes (48.5%).

Kerry got 252 electoral votes (47%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 277 electoral votes (51.5%).

Obama / McCain

obama-mccain-debateAn interesting question is do the Democrats have a built-in advantage in the electoral college? I came up with the idea to recalculate the last presidential elections so that the Republican and Democratic candidates got the same vote, an exact 50/50 popular vote split. So here’s the result for 2008. I calculated to the nearest thousand votes and to 4 decimal places.

Obama 69,498,000 votes / McCain 59,948,000 votes / Equal votes for each 64,723,000

Multiple Obama’s  vote by 0.9313 / Multiple McCain’s vote by 1.0797 / Do this for their vote in each state and the District of Columbia. What happens?

The electoral votes of the states of Florida (27), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), and Virginia (13) go from Obama to McCain. The change in electoral votes for the candidates?

Obama got 365 electoral votes (69%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 279 electoral votes (52%).

McCain got 173 electoral votes (31%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 259 electoral votes (48%).

50/50

image10An interesting question is do the Democrats have a built-in advantage in the electoral college? I came up with the idea to recalculate the last presidential elections so that the Republican and Democratic candidates got the same vote, an exact 50/50 popular vote split. So here’s the result for 2012. I calculated to the nearest thousand votes and to 4 decimal places.

Obama 65,916,000 votes / Romney 60,934,000 votes / Equal votes for each 63,425,000

Multiple Obama’s  vote by 0.9622 / Multiple Romney’s vote by 1.0409 / Do this for their vote in each state and the District of Columbia. What happens?

The electoral votes of the states of Florida (29) and Ohio (18) go from Obama to Romney. The change in electoral votes for the candidates?

Obama got 332 electoral votes (62%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 285  electoral votes (53%).

Romney got 206 electoral votes (38%) with a 50/50 popular vote split it’s 253 electoral votes (47%).